Recession indicators tilting the scales, Virginia Tech finance expert says
August 20, 2019
A Virginia Tech finance expert is available to discuss the indicators of a recession and the historical context of the U.S. Treasury market’s current state.
“There are numerous factors that are all contributing in a similar direction,” said George Morgan, a professor of finance in the Pamplin College of Business. “Not everything points in that direction, but you don’t see everything pointing in the same direction until it is too late.”
Last week’s inversion of the yield curve aggregates all the factors, Morgan said.
“Because the U.S. Treasury market is one of the deepest in the world with average volume exceeding $500 billion changing hands every day and because bonds have specific characteristics that differ from stocks, one can infer what the market is incorporating regarding the future path of interest rates.”
Morgan said many money managers who operate in that market are forecasting that interest rates will fall significantly in the near future, “a pattern that typically happens during a recession.”
“Whether rates fall in the U.S. because other countries are lowering their rates, other economies such as Germany and China are faltering, the dollar is rising, U.S. manufacturing seems to be in a slump, inflation has peaked, or the Fed is hinting at cuts, the curve is reflecting a market anticipation of a downward drift,” he said.
George Morgan is the SunTrust Professor of Finance at Virginia Tech’s Pamplin College of Business. His research revolves around the decisions regulators should make when faced with issues related to disciplining banks. He also examines the ways bankers can hedge their interest rate and foreign currency exchange rate risks. Additionally, his research centers on the use and risks of futures trading and the management and regulation of commercial banking organizations and their regulatory capital positions. View his bio.
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